Treasury Yields Rebound as OECD Cuts 2025 U.S. Growth Forecast Amid Trade Tensions

 

U.S. Treasury yields trimmed earlier gains Tuesday as investors reacted to a more cautious economic forecast from the OECD and kept a close eye on mounting global trade tensions. 

The 10-year Treasury yield ticked up to 4.472%a slight rebound after an earlier dip of more than 4 basis points while the 30-year yield hovered just below 5%. 

These movements reflect investor uncertainty, especially as revised projections lowered expectations for U.S. economic growth to 1.6% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, down from a previously anticipated 2.2% expansion.

The OECD also downgraded its global outlook, pointing to increased tariffs, tighter financial conditions, and ongoing policy uncertainty as drags on future growth.

 In its report, the organization warned that persistent trade barriers and fragile business confidence could significantly hamper economic momentum. 

These concerns are underscored by escalating tensions between major economies. The U.S. accused China of breaching a trade pact, prompting a swift denial from Beijing. 

At the same time, the European Union pushed back against Washington’s plan to double steel tariffs, warning it could trigger retaliatory measures and disrupt ongoing negotiations.